Premier League betting: Back Marc Cucurella to score against Leeds – Jones Knows | Soccer News
Our tipster Jones Knows has four big prizes to go for this weekend as he predicts easy wins for Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City.
How did we get along last weekend?
Although my strong desire for Tottenham to win by a goal at Chelsea was officially just one goal short, it’s safe to say that I overestimated Tottenham this season based on their performance at Stamford Bridge. They were so lucky to escape with a draw despite the expected goals data suggesting it was a close game. Chelsea, who were excellent, look set for the best of others this season – not Spurs. I am on Antonio Conte’s men to clinch a trophy but they will need to play with more personality and sparkle against elite teams if they are to go all the way in a competition this season.
It was a losing weekend of four points on aggregate as Joe Willock failed to score for Newcastle against Brighton while Fulham beat Wolves and the game to have 50 or more booking points at 7/1 is also went south the way of the teeth. Aleksandar Mitrovic’s missed penalty in a match that produced the goods in terms of cards can certainly be filed in the ‘bad beat’ cabinet. It is well stocked over the years. Hello old friends, nice to see you again.
P+L = -0.5
Marc Cucurella’s smart, aggressive and stylish performance against Tottenham caught my eye as he looks more than capable of proving an outlet from the left-back role for Thomas Tuchel. His link-up play with Mason Mount has completely torn Spurs apart at times. He may not be as explosive in that position as Ben Chilwell or Marcus Alonso, but his positional awareness and ability on the ball should see his attacking numbers increase over the course of the season.
The players selected in the left-back role of Tuchel enjoy great attacking license. Last season, this player averaged one goal every four games and recorded 2.5 shots per 90 minutes. Cucurella has all the characteristics to match that average, so there looks to be juice in both his goalscoring and shooting prizes over the next few weeks. A player who is likely to score every four games or so should not be 18/1 to score anytime against a team he is 1/2 to beat in the match market while 11/4 on Cucurella for hitting normal shots the two-shot average for a Chelsea left-back is also very attractive value play.
Solly March, even at 28, looks like the next player to be taken to the next level by Graham Potter judging by his performance and goal threat over the first two matchdays. With Tariq Lamptey currently out of form and out of favor and Pascal Gross playing more forward and central, March appears to have made the right-back position his own.
Primarily left-footed, March fits my ‘wide player cutting off stronger foot’ theory which has led to profitable bets following Kyle Walker-Peters and Neco Williams playing for Wales in the shooting markets and goals. March generated an expected total goals of 0.32 in two games, firing the shot that David de Gea fired at Pascal Gross in the win at Manchester United before being twice disallowed by a final defender and goalkeeper from goal against Newcastle last weekend. It’s been almost two years since his last Premier League goal but it has influenced his price too much to score at the London Stadium.
It shouldn’t be 33/1 to score first or 14/1 to score this weekend. And it’s a bet to follow in the weeks to come as long as he remains in this position and in such a good nickname.
We landed a similar gamble at the start of last season so it felt like a savvy play to try to repeat the feat involving three in-form teams who have the defensive abilities to keep a clean sheet on the road against certain hits. -and- miss attacks. Read the full reasoning on each game in the prediction article here.
1pt over Southampton to win at half time and full time against Leicester (13/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
At home, in a game where fans comfortably expect them to win, things can get tough for Leicester players, especially against a Southampton side who have a lethal record of quick starts. If you simulate a league table with only first-half results from last season, Saints would be sixth after coming on the break in 13 of their 38 Premier League games.
They also took the lead at Tottenham before their second-half capitulation on matchday one.
If the Foxes fell behind, I would have serious doubts about the ability of the players in the current atmosphere to show the mentality and the bottle needed to turn the tide. Rodgers’ side have won just one of the last 14 Premier League games conceding the first, losing nine.